A recent survey by Invesco has found nearly three-quarters (72%) of investors forecast the price of gold to increase by the end of 2019.
The price of gold has already risen 8% this month alone as the commodity sits around the $1,400 per ounce mark. Those investors that predict the price to continue rising estimated the value to reach $1,480 by the year’s end. That being said, exactly a quarter of those surveyed said they expect the price to remain the same or even fall over the next six months.
This bullish outlook is a result of the trade conflicts between the US and China which 71% of investors say this is a key driver for the expected rise in the price of gold. Other factors include economic downturn in the US and/or Europe (60%) or central banks holding or cutting interest rates (37%).
The participants were also asked what factors are driving the demand for gold ETCs. The most popular response was the ease of use with 61% of investors questioned selecting this option. Other factors included better liquidity (59%) and lower costs (57%).
Market flows for gold ETCs support this opinion and strategy as the European listed gold ETCs have gathered $3.5bn worth of assets year-to-date. Invesco’s $6bn gold ETC (SGLD), alone, attracted over a quarter (28%) of those inflows.
SGLD has a fixed annual fee of 0.24%. We calculated that Invesco makes roughly $15.4m a year in revenue from this product. Similar products are some of the biggest money makers for ETC issuers.
Gold is seen as a safe haven from volatile equity markets and some analysts forecast the end of an economic cycle quickly approaching which will spook some investors to look for protection. With expense ratios for gold ETCs on the market ranging from 24bps (Invesco) to 59bps (Xtrackers), it is understandable why issuers are pushing these products when investors are looking to jump from their potentially sinking equity ETF ship.